According to fresh data from crypto options exchange Deribit, retail traders overwhelmingly believe that BTC will surge well into six figures by year’s end—with $120K emerging as the most “crowded” bet in the entire crypto market.
Why $120K Bitcoin Target?
Open interest in Bitcoin options has exploded, reaching more than $32 billion across the market. And a significant portion of that is now concentrated around $120,000 strike prices—suggesting that retail investors believe the recent bullish momentum has legs.
The $120K BTC call option has become the top retail trade for 2025.
Most of these bets are aimed at December 2025 expiry, signaling long-term conviction.
Deribit analysts noted that BTC options volume hit a new monthly record in May, fueled by bets on a continued breakout.
Crowd Psychology at Play
This isn’t just about technical charts or institutional flows—this is about sentiment.
According to Deribit’s research head Luuk Strijers, the $120,000 strike price has become the “anchor” for bullish sentiment. In other words, it’s the number that everyone is thinking about—even if they’re not sure how Bitcoin gets there.
How Realistic Is $120K Bitcoin?
Bitcoin would need to rally more than 65% from current levels to reach $120,000. While that sounds ambitious, several catalysts could support the move:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady inflows, legitimizing BTC for traditional investors.
Federal Reserve policy shifts could weaken the dollar and boost demand for hard assets like Bitcoin.
Retail FOMO could intensify if BTC breaks above $75,000 and enters price discovery mode.
But some analysts warn that crowded trades can become riskier over time.
“The more people pile into one side of the trade, the more vulnerable it becomes to sharp corrections,” one options strategist told Forbes.
The Risks of Betting on $120K BTC
Even as optimism builds, the crypto market remains volatile. If Bitcoin stalls or retraces due to macroeconomic shocks, regulatory changes, or whale profit-taking, many of these bullish options bets could expire worthless.
Still, the popularity of the $120,000 strike illustrates a powerful narrative: Retail traders see Bitcoin not just as an investment—but as a revolution in value storage, and they’re willing to bet big on its future.
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