Greece’s Fiscal Strategy Faces Questions Over Tax Windfall and Investment Optimism

At first glance, the report signals strong fiscal discipline. It projects a primary surplus of 3.2% of GDP in 2025, with a marginal overall surplus of 0.1%. Tax revenues are expected to reach 48.9% of GDP, slightly lower than in 2024, while public spending is set to remain steady at 48.8%. The figures suggest Greece will maintain compliance with EU fiscal rules despite ramping up public investment and social spending. Public debt, one of the highest in the eurozone, is forecast to fall to 145.7% of GDP, aided by favorable borrowing conditions and early loan repayments.

Economic growth is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025—more than double the eurozone average of 0.9%. This expansion is projected to be fueled by domestic consumption and a robust increase in investment, both public and private. However, closer examination of the report reveals a number of assumptions that are either underexplained or overly optimistic.

One of the most striking claims is that anti-tax evasion reforms implemented in 2024 will lead to a permanent increase in annual tax revenues of over €2 billion. These reforms include the digital linking of point-of-sale systems to cash registers, the wider adoption of Greece’s myDATA electronic bookkeeping platform, and a mandate for electronic payments. While these measures are widely seen as positive steps toward reducing tax evasion—a longstanding issue in Greece—the report offers no detailed methodology to justify the projected revenue gain. There is no breakdown of which measures are expected to deliver the most impact, nor any distinction between revenue increases due to greater compliance and those resulting from broader economic growth, such as higher wages or consumption. This lack of clarity has raised doubts about the reliability of the projection and whether the expected revenue is based on tangible evidence or optimistic forecasting.