Verizon And Federal Wins Power Ribbon Communications' Confident Outlook
The analyst said IP Optical revenue rose to $84 million, up 13% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, beating estimates by 6%. Sales in India and North America surged over 40% year-over-year. Excluding Eastern Europe, the IP Optical segment posted a 5% annual increase. He noted that the segment’s gross margin expanded 760 basis points sequentially to 35.9%, supported by stronger North American sales, improved mix and margins in Asia-Pacific, and better fixed cost absorption from higher volume. The adjusted EBITDA loss for IP Optical narrowed to $5 million from a $15 million loss a year ago.
Company-wide gross margin reached 52.1%, expanding 340 basis points quarter-over-quarter, though contracting 230 basis points year-over-year, missing estimates due to a greater share of hardware and services revenue, Genovese noted. The analyst said that operating margin expanded sharply to 12.5%, up 1,120 basis points sequentially and 300 basis points year-over-year, beating projections by 20 basis points. He noted that adjusted EBITDA totaled $32 million, representing a 433% increase sequentially and 47% growth year-over-year, at the high end of company guidance.
Genovese noted that management guided third-quarter revenue between $213 million and $227 million, slightly below prior estimates. The analyst expects IP Optical revenue to grow sequentially, while Cloud and Edge revenue will likely decline, primarily due to project timing with Verizon. Gross margins are projected between 53.5% and 54%, below the prior 55.9% estimate, and adjusted EBITDA is forecast between $28 million and $34 million.
The company reiterated its full-year 2025 outlook, maintaining revenue guidance of $870 million to $890 million, gross margins of 54%–55%, and adjusted EBITDA of $130 million to $140 million. However, management noted that GMs and EBITDA are trending toward the lower end of those ranges due to stronger-than-expected product and professional services sales and a $2 million quarterly opex impact from the weaker U.S. dollar.
Genovese noted that management expects the fourth quarter to remain the strongest quarter of the year, as is typical for Ribbon. Additionally, the firm anticipates $15 million to $20 million in tax savings following a recent bill passed by Congress.
Genovese highlighted that the Ribbon story remains attractive, especially at a valuation of 12.5x estimated 2026 EPS. The analyst emphasized Ribbon’s ability to weather recent headwinds, such as its exit from Eastern Europe and timing-related delays in the Federal and Enterprise sectors, while consistently delivering on its guidance across multiple quarters.
He also noted meaningful improvement in the Cloud and Edge narrative, particularly with Verizon’s shift to next-gen voice infrastructure, enhancing Ribbon’s growth prospects. Additionally, Genovese noted that Ribbon could win a similar deal with AT&T (NYSE:T), which has committed to fully modernizing its voice systems by 2029. He highlighted growing synergies between Ribbon’s business segments, as Verizon now uses its routers for the Cloud and Edge upgrade, a signal of broader strategic alignment and opportunity ahead.
Price Action: RBBN stock is trading lower by 11.7% to $3.76 at last check Thursday.
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Latest Ratings for RBBN
|
Date |
Firm |
Action |
From |
To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jan 2021 |
B. Riley Securities |
Initiates Coverage On |
Buy | |
|
Oct 2019 |
Northland Capital Markets |
Downgrades |
Outperform |
Market Perform |
|
Aug 2018 |
Cowen & Co. |
Upgrades |
Underperform |
Market Perform |
View More Analyst Ratings for RBBN
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
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